Technical Analysis
Bitcoin (BTC) has been trading in a narrow range between $34,000 and $36,000 for the past few weeks. The price has recently been rejected from resistance at $35500 and is currently testing support at $34,000.
On the weekly chart, BTC has formed a bearish harami pattern, which is a strong reversal signal. The price has also broken below the 200-week moving average, which is a key support level.
On the daily chart, the price is forming a triple-top pattern, which is another bearish reversal signal. The neckline of the pattern is at $34,000. If the price breaks below this level, it could lead to a further decline in price.
News and Meetings
There are a few important news and meetings scheduled for the coming weeks that could have an impact on the price of BTC.
On November 2, the US Federal Reserve will announce its interest rate decision. If the Fed raises interest rates more aggressively than expected, it could lead to a sell-off in risk assets, including BTC.
On November 3, the US Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) will hold a meeting to discuss cryptocurrency regulation. If the SEC takes a more hawkish approach to regulation, it could also lead to a sell-off in BTC.
On November 8, the US midterm elections will be held. If the Republican Party takes control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate, it could lead to a more favorable regulatory environment for cryptocurrencies.
Prediction
Based on the technical analysis and the upcoming news and meetings, I believe that BTC is likely to experience a further decline in price in the coming weeks. The price could break below the neckline of the head and shoulders pattern at $34,000, and could even test support at the liquidity spike at $27,000.
However, if the SEC takes a more favorable approach to regulation, or if the Republican Party takes control of either the House of Representatives or the Senate, it could lead to a rebound in the price of BTC.
Trading Strategy
I would recommend that traders exercise caution and avoid taking long positions in BTC at this time. If the price breaks below $34,000, short positions could be considered. However, it is important to note that the cryptocurrency market is very volatile, and prices can move quickly in either direction.
Disclaimer
This is not financial advice. Please do your research before making any investment decisions.
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